http://blog.esnai.com/badman/category/17487.html个股研究男人的事业zh-CHS.Text Version 0.958.2004.214男人的事业http://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/04/20/284076.htmlSun, 20 Apr 2008 10:40:00 GMThttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/04/20/284076.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/284076.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/04/20/284076.html#Feedback0http://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/commentRss/284076.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/services/trackbacks/284076.html<p><span class="left" id="publishDate">发表于：2008年3月30日 22时55分23秒<span id="voteExpireTime" style="DISPLAY: none; FLOAT: left"></span></span></p> <p>本文链接：<span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL"><a href="http://user.qzone.qq.com/279307455/blog/1206888923">http://user.qzone.qq.com/279307455/blog/1206888923</a></span></p> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL"><img height="367" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/600674080330.gif" width="614" border="0" /></span></p> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL">2008年5月31日更新</span></p> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL">【星岛网讯】美国加州一家公司近日宣布，已成功把海藻转化成原油。利用这种技术，将来可以生产大量超净化的环保汽油和柴油，不单对推动环保大有帮助，亦可以减少依赖进口石油。<br />　　<br />　　星岛新闻集团消息，全球各地近年致力推广和加紧研究各类再生能源，例如利用玉米提炼乙醇，但研究过程十分艰辛和充满障碍，也衍生出不少问题，例如利用玉米去提炼能源，会令种植农作物的农地减少，尤其是在现时全球粮食涨价和供应短缺的时候，这个问题特别引起关注。<br />　　<br />　　今次加州新公司Sapphire Energy研究另类能源的成果令人鼓舞。该公司是利用海藻、阳光、二氧化碳和不能饮用的水，成功制造出一种环保原油。<br />　　<br />　　成立只有一年的Sapphire Energy声称，从化学角度去看，这种环保原油与现时每桶售价超过130美元的轻质原油差不多。<br />　　<br />　　该公司行政总裁派尔说，这种环保原油可以在现有的石油提炼厂内进行提炼，而提炼出来的燃料，可以在汽车和货车上使用。<br />　　<br />　　这种全新技术最大的特点，是不存在目前生产各种生化燃料时的缺点，又不像现时很多汽车所使用的汽油或柴油那么污染。如果这种新能源能大派用场，将有助大大降低汽车、货车、火车和飞机废气对环境造成的损害。<br />　　<br />　　派尔指出，用海藻提炼而成的环保原油，可以协助美国减少对进口原油的依赖，并纾缓社会各界及市场人士对能源短缺的忧虑。在生产和提炼过程中所使用的二氧化碳，是煤碳工厂排放出来的，符合环保原则。<br />　　<br />　　Sapphire Energy拒绝透露生产过程的详情，也不肯公布在甚么地方进行试验和研究。该公司预期在三年内，推出首批环保原油，并在五年内大量生产作商业用途。不过，派尔不肯预测这种新产品的售价若干，只是说，价钱可以与其它能源产品竞争。<br />　　<br />　　美国关注公益科学家联盟（UCS）的交通工具分析员安亚称，Sapphire Energy的研究成果令人意识到科学家真的可以找到更好的方法，为交通运输系统提供动力。<br />　　时间：2008-05-29 <br /></p></span> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="copyBlogURL"><a href="http://sz.photo.store.qq.com/rurl2=7386294c8c472471cdc032668828ce2d11b950c2e35e68c3a74cca20ac2f444144d70b172ac1499379b206196ac352055e534a2b20c3be0924858d6a6b4c884c87bf7057775fc07cd0a6534e849250dd6d5f5042" target="_blank"><img style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline! important" height="160" src="http://sz.photo.store.qq.com/rurl2=7386294c8c472471cdc032668828ce2d11b950c2e35e68c3a74cca20ac2f444144d70b172ac1499379b206196ac352055e534a2b20c3be0924858d6a6b4c884c87bf7057775fc07cd0a6534e849250dd6d5f5042" width="309" border="0" /></a></span></p><img src ="http://blog.esnai.com/badman/aggbug/284076.html" width = "1" height = "1" />男人的事业http://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/16/263923.htmlSat, 16 Feb 2008 08:09:00 GMThttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/16/263923.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/263923.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/16/263923.html#Feedback20http://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/commentRss/263923.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/services/trackbacks/263923.html<p>投资一个伟大的企业还需要一个伟大的时机（这几天我一直在群中反复提醒关注）！</p> <p><img height="430" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/601318.jpg" width="650" border="0" /></p> <p>给两个网友的回复：</p> <p>to wuxichen及wangquanb： <br />这市场充满了太多的阴谋论！ <br />尽管我也是一个民族主义者，但是在股票市场上我首先是一个投资人，如果平安能给我带来丰厚的回报，管他是内资还是外资，我为什么不投资它呢？ <br />国企的国际化尽管有不少失败的案例，但通过并购优质资产而成伟大企业的也有巴老的B&amp;H做典型案例，凭什么断言平安的并购就注定失败？ <br />最重要的是平安的再融资时机，目前是全球金融业受到美国次贷危机影响而大副下挫的时候。平安目前所收购的标的价格应是便宜的，至少是平价的。中投是在危机前收购的黑石，其损失不可避免。尽管平安收购的对象标的不明（理所当然是商业秘密），但我相信他的标的一定会是洗尽铅华的素面佳人！ <br />100多元的平安被市场鼓吹并热捧，腰斩后的平安被质疑和脚踩，这市场在犯错，这就是人的心理。人弃我取！<br /></p><img src ="http://blog.esnai.com/badman/aggbug/263923.html" width = "1" height = "1" />男人的事业http://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/12/262758.htmlMon, 11 Feb 2008 16:00:00 GMThttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/12/262758.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/262758.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/archive/2008/02/12/262758.html#Feedback20http://blog.esnai.com/badman/comments/commentRss/262758.htmlhttp://blog.esnai.com/badman/services/trackbacks/262758.html<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312">在中信信托借壳安信越来越明朗之时，各大机构都将安信信托列入重点研究对象。各种安信的研究报告将不断推出。我认为，定向增发全部完成后，安信信托将成为机构重仓股，成为正规军的长线品种。<span lang="EN"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312">从盘面来看，股票高度集中的迹象已经非常明显。<span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312">这篇中银国际的报告，非常有代表性，代表了一批机构投资者对安信信托蜕变为中信信托后的总体看法，是目前为止对信托行业及安信最详尽的分析报告，值得我们好好学习。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312"></span>&nbsp;</p><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312"><span lang="EN"><o:p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">目</span><span lang="EN"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">录</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">核心假设：控股合并中信信托</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">信托的功能与行业之争</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">逆流而上的固有资产投资业务</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">加强本源业务，驱动未来增长</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">控股合并安信信托：盈利贡献有限</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">估值与评级</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">附录一、信托管理新政</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">附录二、我国信托行业中的主要公司</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">附录三、财务报表</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">合并中信信托及安信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">研究报告中所提及的有关上市公司</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">一直以来，作为非主流的金融行业，信托在我国的金融体系中备受争议。信托行业的发展模式也没有清晰的确定下来。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年初中国银监会发布的一系列信托新政有望改变这种状态。在资产管理市场呈爆发式发展的背景下，我们主要考察的中信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年继续保持了高速增长。在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年净利润增长</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">384%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的情况下，公司净利润在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前三季度较上年全年增长</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">151%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。我们预计未来两年公司盈利将再上一个台阶。首次评级为优于大市。优于大市目标价格</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">:</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">人民币</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">39.76 600816.SS/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">人民币</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">32.68 A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日收盘价）</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312">（游侠收集的中信信托历年净利润数据如下：<span lang="EN">2004</span>年<span lang="EN">2624</span>万元，<span lang="EN">2005</span>年<span lang="EN">4653</span>万元，<span lang="EN">2006</span>年<span lang="EN">22518</span>万元，<span lang="EN">07</span>前三季度<span lang="EN">56480</span>万元。奇怪<span lang="EN">ing!</span>目标价<span lang="EN">39.76</span>？我认为是对应上证指数<span lang="EN">4762</span>的估值吧！）<span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在安信信托将于</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年控股合并中信信托的假设条件下，我们将对安信信托的研究转向中信信托。合并过程完成之后，中信集团将实际控制中信信托和安信信托两个业务单元，更为重要的是两家公司都能够享受上市所带来的资本运作平台。资产管理将是未来我国发展最快的行业之一。在这一环境下，中信信托面临着最好的发展机遇。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">信托新政着力强调信托本源业务。但我国目前信托市场还处在起步的阶段，固有资产投资仍将为信托公司盈利能力做出巨大的贡献。中信信托的投资业务具有很强的盈利能力。未来公司将继续利用其在信贷市场和证券市场之间灵活转换的能力最大程度的获得投资收益。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">公司的信托本源业务呈现爆发式增长的态势。在主动的资产管理和项目融资业务中，公司将充分发挥其创新能力取得竞争优势。在被动的受托业务中，强大的集团背景和取长补短的兄弟公司将帮助中信信托实现广泛的业务参与。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">我们对信托行业的前景持乐观态度，也看重公司业已建立起来的领军地位。我们给予公司优于大市的首次评级。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><img height="286" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100028905.jpg" width="533" border="0" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">核心假设：控股合并中信信托</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">安信信托以非公开发行方式进行增发</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月安信信托与相关各方签订协议。公司将以非公开定向发行股票的方式，向中信集团、中信华东及公司现控股股东国之杰发行股票。中信集团以其持有的中信信托有限责任公司</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">80%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的股权认购，中信华东以其持有的中信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的股权认购，国之杰以现金认购。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月安信信托董事会确定了此次非公开发行的具体方案。发行价格确定为每股</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">4.3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元，中信信托的股权价值为人民币</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">52.12</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。以此计算中信集团和中信华东按其各自所持中信信托股权价值认购安信信托所发行的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9.70</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2.42</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股，国之杰以</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">6.45</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元认购安信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股。此次增发共发行</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13.62</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股。增发完成之后中信信托将成为安信信托的全资子公司。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><img height="189" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100106922.gif" width="650" border="0" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">控股合并后中信信托借壳上市</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">增发完成以后，安信信托的实际控制人将由国之杰变为中信集团。中信集团同其全资持有的中信华东集团共同拥有增发后安信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">66.74%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的股份。中信信托作为安信信托的全资子公司将不可避免的与其进行重新整合。由于两家公司实力水平相差甚远，加之中信集团一直希望建立以中信品牌为标志的全方位的金融服务体系、安信信托的业务结构不尽合理等原因，我们认为未来安信信托与中信信托的整合将是以中信信托现有力量为主体。另一方面，安信信托具有一定的牌照价值和在当地的客户资源，客观上这也为中信信托异地开展业务创造了良好的条件。我们认为两家公司的资源整合将使双方获益。虽然两家公司的整合不是一朝一夕能够完成的，但在中信信托的强势推动下，这一整合会相对较为顺利。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><img height="482" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100133700.jpg" width="534" border="0" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">目前的进展以及我们的估值假设</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托的全部权益为中信集团及其全资子公司中信华东所有。中信集团的主管机构财政部已于</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月批复同意中信集团和中信华东以其持有的中信信托股权认购安信信托非公开定向增发的股份。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日该交易得到安信信托股东大会通过。同时该交易还需要得到业务主管机构中国银监会以及上市公司主管机构中国证监会的审核和通过，是否能够得到其批准以及何时能够获得批准尚存在一定的不确定性。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从交易双方提供的资料看，双方均进行了大量细致的准备工作，非公开定向发行也符合目前国家的法律法规和产业政策。从</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市场来看，目前我国还没有大型信托公司上市，已经实现上市的陕西国投和安信信托规模较小，盈利能力普遍不足。鼓励目前在行业中较为领先的信托公司上市既可以实现鼓励优秀信托公司进一步发展的目的，也可以对上市信托公司进行重新整合以提高上市公司质量。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">尽管存在一定的不确定性，我们仍然对本次增发的前景持乐观态度。因此在本篇报告中，我们假设本次安信信托的非公开定向发行顺利得到批准。鉴于对收购合并之后新上市公司整合的判断，我们的报告将以对中信信托的研究为基础，继之以对安信信托现有业务可能会对未来上市公司的影响进行分析。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">信托的功能与行业之争</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">信托行业的存在基础</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">毫无疑问，信托是一种功能。信托机制在财产管理、资金融通、投资理财和社会公益等方面具有独特的功能。但金融体系并没有将这种功能赋予某种单一机构。事实上，根据目前国务院与相关管理机构出台的管理办法，除了信托公司以外，证券投资基金公司、商业银行、证券公司、养老基金公司和保险资产管理公司均在某种程度上按照信托机制进行资产管理业务。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">在此我们无意对金融企业综合化经营的优势、风险或是发展趋势做出评价与预测。但就目前我国的金融体系看，商业银行、证券、保险、信托业的分业经营、分业监管体系已经确立。在可以预见的未来，大范围的综合化经营在我国还很难实现。因此信托行业的独立存在将是一个不可改变的事实。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">横跨资本和货币市场、应变灵活、破产隔离以及独立的第三方角色等特点形成了信托公司的竞争优势。信托功能所赋予的这一行业的优势在很大程度上弥补了其在规模上的先天不足。从另一个角度看，即使是在信托与商业银行结合紧密的美国金融市场，除了作为商业银行的信托部门或独具特色的信托银行之外，主要服务于高端个人客户的独立信托公司也具有广泛的存在空间。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">我国信托行业中的信托与投资并存</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年信托新政出台之前，我国的信托公司一直被称为信托投资公司。顾名思义，我国的信托公司一直以来是作为信托公司和投资公司的结合体存在的。固有资产投资业务一直是我国信托公司重要的利润来源，尤其是对一些小型信托公司来说，投资业务往往是公司盈利的基础。在我们所能找到资料的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">44</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家信托公司中，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年信托业务收入占比公司当年营业收入及投资收益之和超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的只有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家，全行业信托业务收入占比仅为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">26.74%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。弱信托、强投资成为行业盈利模式的特点。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">我国信托行业管理的制度性改革</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中国银监会下发《信托公司管理办法》和《信托公司集合资金信托计划管理办法》，对我国信托公司的经营管理体制进行了较大的改革。新的管理办法突出了信托公司对本源业务的回归，并对固有资产投资业务做出了较为严格的限制。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">首先，在对信托公司的固有资产投资业务上，新的管理办法禁止信托公司开展除同业资金拆入外的任何负债业务，且同业拆入资金不得超过公司净资产的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。在资金运用方面，信托公司原则上不得再以固有资产进行实业投资，以保证公司固有资产的流动性。除存放同业、拆放同业、贷款、租赁业务以外，信托公司的固有资产投资业务被严格限定为金融类公司股权投资、金融产品投资和自用固定资产投资，并规定对外担保余额不得超过净资产的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。限制信托公司的负债业务和取消实业投资业务将在很大程度上限制信托公司的固有资产投资业务。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">其次，在对信托公司的信托本源业务上，新管理办法加强了对集合资金信托计划业务的管理，并体现了放松业务限制与引导业务方向两个方面的特点。新规则对集合资金信托计划产品取消了</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">份份额的限制，并允许信托公司开展异地信托业务。同时对该业务限定了合格投资者的范畴，使这一业务的投资者被限定在了高端客户的范围之内。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">信托本源业务面临爆发式增长</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">近年来我国资产管理市场发展迅速且潜力巨大。在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的三年中，包括投资、养老金管理和投资保险工具在内的资产管理市场年均增长率达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">60%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。即使是在这样的增长速度下，截至</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年底，我国居民仍有高达</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">79%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的个人金融资产是以银行存款的形式存在。根据麦肯锡的预测，到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年我国居民的个人金融资产中银行存款将下降到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">60%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。与之相应，未来</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年我国的资产管理市场复合年均增长率将达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">24%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312">（游侠注：通涨率远高于利率水平，这是国人理财意识觉醒的动力，也是信托业务爆发式增长的源泉。）<span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资需求的增长是个人资产上升到一定阶段以后的必然趋势。对投资收益的追求和对风险承受能力的逐渐增强使人们越来越倾向于寻找适合自己的资产配置。可以说，从</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年开始的牛市行情加速了这一进程。但同时我们也应该看到，牛市并不是资产管理业务快速增长的决定性因素，对资产管理业务的需求并不会因为证券市场投资热情的降低而改变。相反，投资风险的增加将进一步加强机构投资者在资产管理上的优势。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">在我国目前的金融体系中，信托公司是唯一可以横跨货币、资本及直接投资市场的金融机构。信托公司具有商业银行、证券公司以及基金管理公司所不具备的全面的投资渠道和制度上灵活性。历史上，制度上的缺陷以及由此产生的信用缺失造成了历史上我国信托行业整体发展迟缓。而目前随着信托制度的不断完善以及一批优质信托公司的脱颖而出，我们相信未来我国的信托行业将在资产管理市场上占有重要的地位。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">逆流而上的固有资产投资业务</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">固有资产是相对于信托公司信托资产的概念。中信信托的固有资产规模较大，而且盈利能力较强。因此尽管目前的政策环境趋向于推动信托公司回归本源业务，但就中信信托来说，固有资产投资业务在可以预见的未来仍将是公司利润的重要支柱之一。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">公司固有资产投资受新政影响较小</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">从行业的角度说，信托新政的出台沉重的打击了信托公司的固有资产投资业务。在资金来源上信托公司的负债业务受到了严格的限制；在投资方面，很多信托公司赖以生存的实业投资被彻底禁止，固有投资不得不进行业务转型。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与大多数信托公司不同，中信信托受此次政策变化的影响较小。原因主要在于公司近年来经营思路与这次管理制度改革的思路不谋而合。从公司公布的数据看，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以后公司没有开展贷款吸收业务。新政对中信信托的影响主要体现在三个方面，一是拆入资金规模超过上限，但绝对量相比公司的固有资产并不大；二是禁止进行卖出回购金融资产，这将在一定程度上限制公司的融资能力；三是在资金运用上，需要对实业投资进行清理，而中信信托的实业投资规模一直较小。公司的资产运用主要集中于贷款与金融工具投资业务。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><img height="316" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100402214.jpg" width="503" border="0" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">我们将交易性金融资产和可供出售金融资产划入金融资产类。同时由于公司的买入返售金融资产全部为信贷资产收购，因此我们将这一项目划入公司信贷资产。我们看到，在中信信托的固有资产投资中，以实业投资为主体的长期股权投资逐年降低。固有资产投资的业务主体已经演变为贷款发放和金融资产投资两个支柱。由于制度的灵活性，信托公司可以根据市场条件的变化合理配置固有资产在两种投资方式之间的合理组合。在刚刚过去的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中这一灵活性已经充分的体现了出来。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">贷款业务：游离于信贷控制体系之外</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年央行执行从紧的货币政策已成定局，严格控制货币信贷总量和投放节奏将成为今年信贷管理的主旋律。我们预计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年全年信贷规模增长将控制在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">15%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">左右，与之相伴的控制措施将包括贷款指标分拆到各季度以及存款准备金的进一步上调等等。在强劲的贷款需求推动下，今年信贷市场供需将进一步偏紧。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font color="#000000">目前我国信托公司的贷款是游离于信贷控制体系之外的。表现在其一，信托公司贷款的利率完全由市场决定；其二，由于信托公司贷款的资金来源被限定为固有资产，因此准备金的上调对信托公司无法产生影响；其三，对商业银行信贷业务进行的窗口指导并没有应用于信托公司。</font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在信贷市场资金偏紧的情况下，资金需求将不可避免的转向管制较松的信托行业。这样的资金需求有两种情况：一是部分从商业银行贷款困难的公司将转而寻求信托公司的贷款。这些企业的议价能力往往较弱，信托公司可以借此收取较高的收益。比如目前中信信托进行的短期贷款业务中，对房地产公司发放短期贷款收取的年利率达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">25%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">30%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。第二种情况是商业银行在面对严厉的贷款规模限制时，为了维持优质客户，往往会采取信贷资产转让、回购的方法转移信贷资产，或者为客户提供保证担保使其能够更加容易的从信托公司获得资金。当然这部分业务的收益水平可能较第一种情况低。但其风险较小，而且流动性较强，因此可以帮助信托公司的贷款业务控制风险和提高资金使用效率，进而提高投资业务的收益率。事实上，从</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中信信托的贷款收益率水平上我们就可以看到这样的趋势。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司信贷资产收益率稳定在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">左右，而</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月的收益率就已经超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">14%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，全年收益率预计达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">16.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上。我们认为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年随着信贷规模控制力度的加大，公司信贷资产收益率将会进一步提高。</span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="343" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100439278.gif" width="517" border="0" /></span></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span></font>&nbsp;</p><font color="#000000"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在信贷规模上，得益于固有资产的增长以及资产结构的调整，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司信贷资产增长迅速。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年底公司信贷资产总额仅为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">650</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元，到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年底已经达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">21.68</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年信贷资产总额有所收缩，我们认为主要原因在于公司的投资策略转向持有金融资产。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="318" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100506408.gif" width="502" border="0" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span>&nbsp;</p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托的贷款资产质量较高。截至</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底，公司的全部信贷资产中</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">77.14%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">为抵押和质押贷款。信贷资产中只有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元为逾期贷款，且为有抵押物的贷款。公司提取的拨备总额为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.23</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿，不良资产拨备覆盖率达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">72.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="227" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100532654.jpg" width="517" border="0" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span>&nbsp;</p></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">金融资产投资收益可期</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以后公司金融资产投资规模稳定增加。公司固有资产规模的增加、投资结构向证券类资产的倾斜以及</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以来股票投资的收益率大幅提高成为金融资产投资增长的驱动力。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"></span><img height="325" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100558114.gif" width="527" border="0" /></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从结构上看，公司目前所持有的交易性金融资产主要为股票投资，而股票投资的方式主要为新股申购。相对于更为激进的投资方式，新股申购的风险较小，收益率也有一定的保障。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市场首次公开发行</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">(IPO)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">募集资金总量近</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">4,200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。我们预计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市场将延续国有大型企业快速上市的步伐，因此认为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的总体融资规模将与</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年基本持平。在保持目前新股发行规则的假设下，我们对中信信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的金融资产投资收益持较为乐观的态度。</span></p></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="325" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100621977.gif" width="527" border="0" /></span></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在可供出售的金融资产中，公司主要作为中国平安保险公司的战略合作伙伴持有中国平安</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2,000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万股股份，持有成本为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">6.76</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，将于</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月解禁。以公允价值计算，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底该部分投资的账面浮盈超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。基于我们对中国保险行业的乐观态度，我们认为中信信托在该项投资上的收益将远远超过这一数字。不过按照新会计准则这部分投资收益在实现之前将不会记入公司损益，因此这一收益的实现时间存在一定的不确定性。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">实业投资处于清理进程之中摇钱树下看摇钱术</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">根据银监会发布的《关于信托公司过渡期有关问题的通知》，各信托公司应在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日前清理所有实业投资。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前三季度中信信托共清理实业投资两项，当期实现投资收益</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.87</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">目前公司仍需要清理的实业投资普遍规模较小，因此未来的清理过程将不会对公司业绩产生实质性的影响。在以权益法进行核算的股权投资中，公司拥有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的沈阳中兴实业有限公司和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">33.33%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的信太航空服务有限公司的股权，两项投资的权益共计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">724.68</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元。在以成本法进行核算的股权投资中，公司目前仅存对天津燕园国际饭店</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元的投资。由于该项资产质量较低，公司已经对这项投资进行了全额资产减值准备。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公司还持有信诚基金管理有限公司</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">49%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的股权，该部分股权以权益法进行核算。由于这部分投资属于对金融企业的投资，因此不在新政要求的清理范围之内。信诚基金的资产管理规模较小，旗下两只开放式基金的资产合计不足</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，尚不能为公司盈利带来较大贡献。但我们对基金管理行业未来的发展前景持乐观态度。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">固有资产投资业务综合盈利预测</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">我们假定公司在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月以后的三年中逐年沽出其持有的中国平安的股份。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中这一投资将为公司带来总计约为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">15</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元的利润贡献，以及每年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元以上的现金流入。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在固有资产投资的结构上，信贷资产和金融类资产仍是固有资产投资的主体。同时我们也认为随着证券市场收益率的降低，公司的信贷资产规模增速将略大于金融资产规模的增速。两种投资业务在考虑风险差异之后的收益率将逐渐趋于一致。在这样的假设下，我们预计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以后的固有资产投资业务收益率分别达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">25.17%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">22.08%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">18.20%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，对应投资收益水平分别为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">11.59</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元、</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13.34</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13.78</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"></span><img height="339" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100709340.gif" width="532" border="0" /></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">●</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">加强本源业务，驱动未来增长</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如前所述，信托能够作为一个独立行业存在下来依赖的是信托功能赋予其的经营特色。失掉本源业务的信托公司将沦为一般意义上的投资公司，在市场上的竞争优势将大打折扣。因此对本源业务的回归将成为行业发展的重要趋势。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托的本源业务正在进入快速发展时期。这一方面得益于我国资产管理市场的快速发展，另一方面也源于中信信托在资产管理市场上竞争实力的大幅提高。我们看到，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司手续费及佣金收入较上年增长</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">68.92%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，而</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年增长均超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">170%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前三季度已较上年增长</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">120%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，我们预计当年增长速度将超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的增速。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"></span><img height="351" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100736628.gif" width="532" border="0" /></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">目前公司信托业务的收入主要来源于资产管理类业务和融资类业务。托管类业务资金规模最大，但对公司利润贡献有限。我们认为未来这些业务将继续维持较高的增长速度。同时，公司获得的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理的牌照和企业年金的受托人资格也将为未来公司进行资产管理创造新的机会。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">集团背景推动公司本源业务</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托与其实际控制人中信集团以及其他集团附属公司具有天然的紧密联系。依托中信集团的强大实力，公司在资产管理和投资项目获得等方面具有得天独厚的优势。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"></span><img height="353" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100801960.gif" width="532" border="0" /></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在关联方信托项目的投资结构上，信托贷款方式成为投资的主要方式。我们认为主要原因在于集团与其附属实体普遍存在短期资产管理的需求，以及中信集团可以获得的广泛的项目资源。此外，中信集团旗下的中信银行、中信证券、华夏基金等金融机构在很多业务上也存在天然的协同效应。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="353" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29100831384.gif" width="532" border="0" /></span></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理类业务：差异与个性化我们将信托公司处于主动投资地位并掌握投资管理权的信托产品归入资产管理类业务。资产管理类信托以投资者的资金投资为导向。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">同行业整体一样，目前中信信托的资产管理类业务主要方式还是集中在信托贷款方面。各企业对这一方面的数据并不透明，因此我们无法准确获得公司在这一业务上的规模和所获得的收益。根据我们的推算，到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年底，中信信托在信托贷款业务上的规模约为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">420</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，当年为公司带来手续费及佣金收入</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2.5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。这一估计也包括了信托本源业务的另一种类：融资类业务。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月中国银监会发布《信托公司集合资金信托计划管理办法》。该办法带来的最大变化是取消了以前一直实行的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">份限额，取而代之的是对投资人投资资格的管理。通过对最低投资额和投资人资格的管理，新的管理办法把集合资金信托计划的投资人严格的限制在了高端个人客户和机构投资者的范围内。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">由于过渡期的安排，新管理办法对集合资金信托计划的影响尚不明确。我们认为投资者高端化之后带来的一个重要特点将是投资方式的升级。由于高端客户往往具有投资回报要求高，风险承受能力强的特点，传统的贷款投放对这类产品的适应性将显著降低。如何追求产品的个性、尤其是与商业银行理财产品的差异化将是未来信托理财产品成功与否的决定性因素。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">未来公司以私募股权投资为代表的创新投资方式将逐渐成为资产管理类业务增长的驱动性力量。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月公司推出“中信锦绣一号股权投资基金信托”，发行规模超过</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，预计收益率</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">6%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">25%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月公司推出“中信远景基础设施投资信托”，预计年收益达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">35%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，投资起点为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">500</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元，规模预计达到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">35</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。除了收取固定的投资管理费用，在私募股权投资信托产品中公司还可以按事先约定提取收益分成。另外，公司还通过以固有资产投资信托产品获取投资收益。在创业板市场推出前夜，私募股权投资正面临着历史上最好的发展机遇。我们认为这样的目标客户定位和投资方式在未来几年中将实现较快速度的发展。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理业务也可能为公司的资产管理业务增长贡献较大的动力。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月中信信托首批获得信托系</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">业务资格。我们预计公司将于</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年推出自己的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">产品。从目前的情况看，我们对公司的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理业务持谨慎态度。一方面，目前投资者对</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">产品的投资热情明显较低，另一方面，根据相关规定，信托</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资金仍主要限制于固定收益证券</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">长期信用评级至少为投资级以上的外国银行存款；投资级以上的外国政府债券、国际金融组织债券和外国公司债券；中国政府或者企业在境外发行的债券；投资级以上的银行票据、大额可转让存单、货币市场基金等货币市场产品等</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，而对于是否能投资港股及其他成熟市场、投资比例等一直未有明确规定。考虑到目前银行系</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">产品在销售渠道、进入门槛等方面的优势，信托公司的产品很难具有明显的优势。当然，如果中信信托最终能实现投资方向上的突破，其在高端客户上的优势以及中信集团在国外投资项目寻找、发现和辨别上的优势可能会被带入</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">业务中。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">融资类业务：非标准化直接融资</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与资产管理类业务不同，融资类业务以投资项目为导向，利用信托渠道募集资金。这一业务是我国信托行业最基本也是历史最悠久的本源业务。企业就某一项目向信托公司提出融资需求，信托公司利用其特有的渠道募集资金，其募集方式可以是向多个高端投资人发行集合资金信托计划，也可以只针对某一投资者形成单一信托，或者利用商业银行的销售渠道降低投资门槛进行银信合作。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理类业务和融资类业务将成为未来中信信托本源业务的盈利增长主体。而在投资方式上，私募股权投资将成为拉动盈利增长的驱动力量，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">QDII</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">资产管理业务也有望贡献较高收益。考虑到资产管理市场发展初期规模扩张较快，加之目前我国严格控制商业银行信贷规模给信托行业留下的空间，我们认为中信信托的资产管理类业务和融资类业务将保持稳定高速的增长态势。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">托管类业务：以规模换收益</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">托管类业务即狭义信托或称民事信托。信托公司在这类业务中仅仅扮演一种法律规定的忠实守护者和执行者的角色，没有任何主动性可言。企业在这一业务上收取的费率较低，且受到商业银行的激烈竞争。应该说，从行业来看，信托行业在这一类业务上并不具备与商业银行竞争的技术和物质基础。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">但从目前信托行业的角度看，信托资产的主体仍然是这类被动的托管类业务。中信信托的信托资产也面临了同样的问题。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司信托资产总额大幅增长，从</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">600</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元左右增加到</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1,760</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，而与此同时公司手续费与佣金收入增速远低于这一水平。我们估计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年底公司被动托管类的信托资产总额约为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1,300</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，占全部托管资产的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">70%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上，而相应手续费与佣金收入仅为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿左右，约占全部手续费与佣金收入的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">24%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">毫无疑问，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年托管类业务的快速增长与证券投资类理财产品的大幅增长有直接的关系。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年这一趋势有望延续。但从长远来看，由于行业在这一业务上处于明显弱势地位，其长期发展潜力堪忧。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托在这一业务上将走上一条以规模换收益的道路。即虽然收益率较低，但通过扩大业务参与争取在绝对值上获取可观的收入。除了证券投资理财产品外，中信信托的企业年金管理可望成为另一亮点。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">从目前企业年金管理牌照的发放来看，信托公司的地位并不占优。在企业年金管理受托人、账户管理人、托管人和投资管理人四种角色中，信托行业只拿到了受托人和账户管理人两种。与之相对的是商业银行拥有受托人、账户管理人和托管人的牌照，且在托管人牌照上独家所有；保险公司则拥有受托人、账户管理人和投资管理人的牌照。从这种结构上看，信托公司在企业年金市场上很难形成核心的竞争能力。但中信信托的企业年金业务则另当别论。中信集团所控股的中信证券和华夏基金拥有投资管理人资格、中信银行拥有托管人资格、中信信托则拥有受托人和账户管理人资格。一条完整的产业链已经在中信集团的层面内形成，且机构之间相互排除了竞争关系。中信集团的企业年金管理各角色，将具备统一的品牌、提供统一的产品和报价。通过缩短四种角色之间的信息交流时间，减少不必要的信息交流环节，提高基金管理效率。此外，完整的产业链可以提供企业年金各角色服务的打包优惠，使集团产品更具竞争力。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">而中信信托虽然并没有取得企业年金管理的核心地位，但其受托人的法律地位是无可替代的。即使是在目前托管人或账户管理人营销客户并代为选择受托人的“倒挂现象”下，中信信托也将实现充分的业务参与。从这个意义上讲，我们认为未来企业年金的管理业务将成为中信信托托管类业务的一个亮点。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">信托资金募集方式传统的私募式</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">信托资金募集方式仍占信托资金募集的主体。渠道的不足一直是制约信托业务发展的一个重要瓶颈。未来这一困局可能因为银信合作的开展而部分解决。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与坚持高端路线的信托产品不同，银信连结产品显示出了基金化的优势。银行理财产品的起点较低，人民币理财的起点一般只有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元，但投资方向高度受限。信托公司的投资方向基本可以覆盖所有领域，但受制于产品销售渠道的限制，发展同样面临瓶颈。银行与信托的连结为两种金融机构利用各自优势提供了良好的平台。但从目前的情况看，银信连结还主要停留在新股申购的初级阶段。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"></span>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><img height="459" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29101022761.gif" width="532" border="0" /></span></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托本源业务规模及收益综合预测</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">由于基数较小，</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司信托本源业务实现爆发式的增长。我们认为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年可望延续这样的速度。</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以后信托本源业务增长趋缓，但受惠于整个行业的新兴状态，其综合增长率仍将快于我国资产管理市场的增速。在产品结构上主动式的资产管理业务和项目融资业务增长快于被动式的资金托管业务。我们对公司</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以后三年的本源业务规模预计分别为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2,790</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元、</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">3,474</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">4,339</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。三年中对应的手续费和佣金收入本别为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">10.35</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元、</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13.68</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元和</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">18.12</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><img height="335" src="/images/esnai_com/badman/29101052453.gif" width="513" border="0" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">控股合并安信信托：盈利贡献有限</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中信信托借壳安信信托上市以后将对其进行重新整合。从安信信托的经营情况看，其对中信信托各种业务的贡献非常有限。但中信信托的发行股本将从</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">12</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿增加到逾</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">18</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿。可以说，吸收合并后的公司权益摊薄是中信信托在借壳上市过程中不得不支付的成本。我们假定</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中信证券与安信证券合并报表。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">固有资产投资面临全面清理</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公司</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以后没有进行任何证券投资。贷款业务在</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前三季度也完全处于停滞状态。目前公司贷款余额均为以前年度结转的逾期贷款。也就是说，目前公司符合信托新政的固有资产投资业务已经停止。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与之相对应的是公司持有数量较大的实业投资和房地产投资余额。截至</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底，安信信托合并报表范围内的公司共有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家，公司期末投资额合计</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">1.32</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。其中公司投资</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">0.37</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元得到的银晨网讯科技有限公司</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">77.05%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的股权将在公司与中信信托合并的同时以</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2.08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元的价格转让给公司的控股股东国之杰。从整体来看，其它公司普遍经营不善。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在以成本法进行核算的长期股权投资中，截至</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月底公司共进行投资</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">0.47</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，参股</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">13</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家企业。这些投资中除对鞍山自控仪表</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">集团</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股份有限公司的</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">0.34</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元投资属于预计可收回金额低于账面价值以外，其余项目全部预计无法收回并已足额提取减值准备。目前公司以成本法进行核算的账面投资余额扣除减值准备后只有</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">0.17</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公司以权益法进行核算的长期股权投资为对上海三至酒店管理有限公司的投资。此项</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">2003</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年进行的初始投资为</span><span lang="EN"><font face="Times New Roman">0.2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: